May 5, 2026Edition № 35
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Polymarket·Trump Presidency

Will Trump visit China by...?

Current top probability

95%

June 30

All outcomes

  • June 30
    95%
  • May 31
    93%
  • May 15
    85%
  • May 8
    <1%
  • October 31, 2025
    <1%
  • March 31, 2026
    <1%
  • April 30
    <1%

Probability over time

0%25%50%75%100%8:55 AM12:11 PM
June 30 probability over 4 snapshots+0.2pp

About this market

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits China by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.