May 5, 2026Edition № 35
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Polymarket·Geopolitics

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Current top probability

70%

No

Both sides

  • No
    70%
  • Yes
    31%

Probability over time

0%25%50%75%100%8:55 AM12:11 PM
No probability over 4 snapshots+0.0pp

About this market

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.