Polymarket·Elections
Next French Presidential Election
Current top probability
24%
Jordan Bardella
All outcomes
- Jordan Bardella24%
- Édouard Philippe21%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon9%
- Marine Le Pen7%
- David Lisnard6%
- Dominique de Villepin5%
- François Hollande4%
- Gabriel Attal3%
- Bruno Retailleau3%
- Sarah Knafo2%
- Raphaël Glucksmann2%
- Sébastien Lecornu1%
- Jean Castex<1%
- Gérald Darmanin<1%
- Éric Zemmour<1%
- Juan Branco<1%
- Bernard Cazeneuve<1%
- Laurent Wauquiez<1%
- Valérie Pécresse<1%
- François Ruffin<1%
- Clémence Guetté<1%
- Fabien Roussel<1%
- François Asselineau<1%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan<1%
- Carole Delga<1%
- Marine Tondelier<1%
- Clémentine Autain<1%
- Élisabeth Borne<1%
- Manuel Bompard<1%
- Xavier Bertrand<1%
- Olivier Faure<1%
- Ségolène Royal<1%
- Michel Barnier<1%
- François Bayrou<1%
- Mathilde Panot<1%
- Yaël Braun-Pivet<1%
- Other<1%
- Person F<1%
- Person H<1%
- Person J<1%
- Person L<1%
- Person N<1%
- Person P<1%
- Person R<1%
- Person T<1%
- Person V<1%
- Person X<1%
- Person Z<1%
- Person AB<1%
- Person AD<1%
- Person AF<1%
- Person AH<1%
- Person AJ<1%
- Person AL<1%
- Person AN<1%
- Person AP<1%
- Person AR<1%
- Person AT<1%
- Person AV<1%
- Person AX<1%
- Person AZ<1%
- Person BB<1%
- Person BD<1%
- Person BF<1%
- Person BH<1%
- Person BJ<1%
- Person BL<1%
- Person BN<1%
- Person BP<1%
- Person BR<1%
- Person BT<1%
- Person BV<1%
- Person BX<1%
- Person BZ<1%
- Person CB<1%
- Person CD<1%
- Person CF<1%
- Person CH<1%
- Person CJ<1%
- Person CL<1%
- Person CN<1%
- Person CP<1%
- Person E<1%
- Person G<1%
- Person I<1%
- Person K<1%
- Person M<1%
- Person O<1%
- Person Q<1%
- Person S<1%
- Person U<1%
- Person W<1%
- Person Y<1%
- Person AA<1%
- Person AC<1%
- Person AE<1%
- Person AG<1%
- Person AI<1%
- Person AK<1%
- Person AM<1%
- Person AO<1%
- Person AQ<1%
- Person AS<1%
- Person AU<1%
- Person AW<1%
- Person AY<1%
- Person BA<1%
- Person BC<1%
- Person BE<1%
- Person BG<1%
- Person BI<1%
- Person BK<1%
- Person BM<1%
- Person BO<1%
- Person BQ<1%
- Person BS<1%
- Person BU<1%
- Person BW<1%
- Person BY<1%
- Person CA<1%
- Person CC<1%
- Person CE<1%
- Person CG<1%
- Person CI<1%
- Person CK<1%
- Person CM<1%
- Person CO<1%
- Person CQ<1%
Probability over time
About this market
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.
The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).