20 articles · no jargon, no hype
Learn prediction
markets.
From total beginner to confident trader. Each article cross-references the others, so you can follow the trail in any direction.
Foundation
Start here if prediction markets are new to you.
- 6 min read
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market is a place where people trade contracts on whether something will happen. The current price acts as a probability. Here is how they work, why they often beat polls, and where you can use one.
- 5 min read
Reading prediction market odds correctly
A 65% market does not mean Yes will happen. It means the market thinks Yes is more likely than not. The difference is the source of most beginner mistakes.
- 7 min read
Are prediction markets legal?
A jurisdiction-by-jurisdiction overview of where prediction markets stand legally as of 2026. Not legal advice — but a clear map of the landscape.
Platforms
Comparing Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless, and the rest.
- 9 min read
Polymarket vs Kalshi: which one should you use?
Polymarket is the largest, broadest, crypto-native prediction market. Kalshi is the largest US-regulated one. Pick by jurisdiction, payment rails, and what you want to trade. Detailed comparison below.
- 8 min read
How to start trading on Polymarket
A clean walkthrough from zero to your first trade on Polymarket. Wallet setup, USDC funding, placing an order, and what to do after.
- 7 min read
How to start trading on Kalshi
Kalshi is the easiest US-regulated prediction market to start with — fiat banking, traditional account flow, no crypto. Here is the full setup walkthrough.
- 6 min read
Polymarket vs PredictIt
PredictIt was the original US prediction market. Polymarket is the modern global one. Here is how they differ and which one fits your situation.
- 5 min read
Manifold Markets vs Polymarket
Manifold is play-money, Polymarket is real money. Both are useful, but for different reasons. Here is when to use each.
- 7 min read
Polymarket vs traditional sportsbooks
Sports prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks look similar but work very differently. Spreads, payouts, and house edge all favor prediction markets — sometimes dramatically.
Strategy
Trading approaches, edge-finding, and risk management.
- 11 min read
Where to look for edge in prediction markets
Most retail traders buy what they want to see happen. Sharp traders look for mispricings. Here are the five categories where mispricings reliably show up — and how to spot them.
- 7 min read
Kelly criterion: how big should each trade be?
The Kelly formula tells you the optimal bet size given your edge and the odds. Most prediction market traders bet way too much. Here is how to use Kelly without blowing up.
- 6 min read
Common mistakes new prediction market traders make
Eight mistakes that cost beginners money — and how to avoid each. Most of these are obvious in hindsight, painful to learn the hard way.
- 9 min read
Cross-platform arbitrage in prediction markets
When the same question prices differently on Polymarket and Kalshi, a sharp trader can sometimes lock in a profit. Here is how spreads form, when they're real, and how to size them.
- 6 min read
How to track profitable wallets on Polymarket
Polymarket trades are public on the Polygon blockchain. Anyone can see what big traders are doing. Here is how to use that to your advantage — and where it falls short.
How markets work
How resolution, oracles, and market design actually work.
- 8 min read
How prediction markets actually resolve
When a market closes, someone has to declare the answer. Polymarket uses an oracle (UMA), Kalshi uses internal review. The mechanics affect what you should and shouldn't trust.
- 6 min read
Why prediction markets work: the wisdom of crowds
The intuition behind prediction markets is older than financial markets themselves. Here's why aggregating many independent guesses outperforms any single expert.
- 7 min read
Insider trading and prediction markets
Multiple high-profile cases in 2025 raised the question: can someone with private information cheat prediction markets? Yes, sometimes. Here is how it works and what platforms are doing about it.
Category guides
Category-specific guides — politics, sports, crypto, and more.
- 7 min read
Political prediction markets: a category guide
Politics is the original prediction market category and still the highest-profile one. Here's what trades, what platforms cover it best, and where edge persists.
- 6 min read
Crypto prediction markets: what they cover and how they differ from price prediction
Trading "will Bitcoin reach $200K by end of year" is different from buying Bitcoin futures. Here's why event-based crypto markets exist and what they're useful for.
- 6 min read
Sports prediction markets: how they compare to traditional sportsbooks
Sports has become the largest prediction market category by volume. Here's what trades, where, and why serious sports bettors are increasingly using prediction markets instead of sportsbooks.
A note on jurisdiction
Prediction markets are legal in some places, regulated in others, and prohibited in a few. Polymarket is restricted in some countries. Kalshi operates only in the US (with state-level exceptions). Always verify your local law before signing up. OddsPulse provides information only and does not encourage anyone to break the law in their jurisdiction.