May 5, 2026Edition № 35
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Are prediction markets legal?

A jurisdiction-by-jurisdiction overview of where prediction markets stand legally as of 2026. Not legal advice — but a clear map of the landscape.

7 min read··OddsPulse Editorial

"Is this legal where I live?" is the most common question new traders ask, and the honest answer is: it depends. Prediction markets occupy a space between regulated derivatives, gambling, and information services, and different countries have drawn the line in different places. This is an overview, not legal advice. If you're going to deploy meaningful capital, talk to a lawyer in your jurisdiction.

United States

Kalshi is fully regulated by the CFTC and legal in 42+ states. Polymarket received CFTC approval in late 2025 and is rolling out US access via an invite-only waitlist. Both platforms are legal at the federal level for their stated jurisdictions.

State-level disputes continue. Some states (Nevada, Massachusetts, New Jersey) have argued that prediction markets are gambling under state law and should be regulated accordingly. So far courts have largely sided with the federal CFTC framework, but the legal landscape continues to evolve.

United Kingdom

Polymarket has restricted UK access. Kalshi is not available to UK residents. Spread-betting and gambling firms operate under UK Gambling Commission rules — different legal track from prediction markets.

European Union

Mixed picture. Polymarket has restricted access in some EU jurisdictions (notably France, Belgium). The EU's MiCA regulation, which took effect in late 2024, has clarified some crypto rules but hasn't directly addressed prediction markets.

Canada and Australia

Polymarket is generally accessible in Canada and Australia, with some provincial and state-level variations. Both countries have their own gambling regulators that may weigh in over time. As of 2026, there are no specific prediction-market frameworks in either country.

Japan

Japanese law (Penal Code Article 185) treats most non-licensed wagering as illegal gambling. The status of foreign prediction markets accessed from Japan is a gray area that some legal commentators argue could constitute the offense regardless of where the platform is based. Domestic operators have historically avoided the space for this reason.

Asia, Middle East, and elsewhere

Singapore, Hong Kong, and the UAE have varied stances. Singapore generally restricts crypto-based gambling. The UAE has emerging crypto frameworks via VARA. Saudi Arabia and many other Middle Eastern countries prohibit gambling broadly. Always check local rules.

Reading data is different from trading

In most jurisdictions, reading prediction market data (which is what OddsPulse provides) is unrestricted. Even where trading is illegal, the data itself is public information. Plenty of journalists, researchers, and analysts in restrictive jurisdictions follow prediction markets without participating in them.

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