May 5, 2026Edition № 35
Polymarket2026 FIFA World Cup Winner 17%$6.6MPolymarketWhen will Bitcoin hit $150k?10%$5.8MPolymarketIran closes its airspace by...?44%$2.9MPolymarketDemocratic Presidential Nominee 202826%$2.2MPolymarketBitcoin above ___ on May 5?>99%$2.0MPolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 202849%$1.9MPolymarket2026 NBA Champion60%$1.8MPolymarketNext French Presidential Election24%$1.8MPolymarketEurovision Winner 202635%$1.7MPolymarketElon Musk # tweets April 28 - May 5, 2026?91%$1.6MPolymarketWhat will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?>99%$1.4MPolymarketLakers vs. Thunder68%$1.3MPolymarketUS x Iran permanent peace deal by...?63%$1.2MPolymarketWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?70%$1.2MPolymarketLoL: Dplus KIA vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoffs>99%$1.1MPolymarket2026 FIFA World Cup Winner 17%$6.6MPolymarketWhen will Bitcoin hit $150k?10%$5.8MPolymarketIran closes its airspace by...?44%$2.9MPolymarketDemocratic Presidential Nominee 202826%$2.2MPolymarketBitcoin above ___ on May 5?>99%$2.0MPolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 202849%$1.9MPolymarket2026 NBA Champion60%$1.8MPolymarketNext French Presidential Election24%$1.8MPolymarketEurovision Winner 202635%$1.7MPolymarketElon Musk # tweets April 28 - May 5, 2026?91%$1.6MPolymarketWhat will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?>99%$1.4MPolymarketLakers vs. Thunder68%$1.3MPolymarketUS x Iran permanent peace deal by...?63%$1.2MPolymarketWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?70%$1.2MPolymarketLoL: Dplus KIA vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoffs>99%$1.1M
OddsPulse
← Live odds
Polymarket·Politics

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

Current top probability

59%

June 30

All outcomes

  • June 30
    59%
  • May 31
    30%
  • May 15
    12%
  • May 5
    <1%
  • April 15
    <1%
  • April 16
    <1%
  • April 17
    <1%
  • April 18
    <1%
  • April 22
    <1%
  • April 30
    <1%
  • April 19
    <1%
  • April 21
    <1%
  • April 20
    <1%
  • April 23
    <1%
  • April 24
    <1%
  • April 25
    <1%
  • April 27
    <1%
  • April 29
    <1%
  • April 26
    <1%
  • April 28
    <1%

Probability over time

0%25%50%75%100%8:55 AM12:11 PM
June 30 probability over 4 snapshots+2.0pp

About this market

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.