Tuesday, May 5, 2026May 5, 2026Independent prediction market intelligence/Edition № 35

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Kalshi·Elections

Which party will win the next UK general election?

Current top probability

41%

Reform party

All outcomes

Reform party
41%
Labour party
23%
Conservative party
13%
Green party
13%
Restore Britain party
6%
Liberal Democratic party
<1%
Your Party
<1%
Bruv party
<1%

Probability over time

Reform party probability over 4 snapshots+0.0pp

About this market

In the next U.K. election