Tuesday, May 5, 2026May 5, 2026Independent prediction market intelligence/Edition № 35

Polymarket2026 FIFA World Cup Winner 17%$6.6M PolymarketWhen will Bitcoin hit $150k?10%$5.8M PolymarketIran closes its airspace by...?44%$2.9M PolymarketDemocratic Presidential Nominee 202826%$2.2M PolymarketBitcoin above ___ on May 5?>99%$2.0M PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 202849%$1.9M Polymarket2026 NBA Champion60%$1.8M PolymarketNext French Presidential Election24%$1.8M PolymarketEurovision Winner 202635%$1.7M PolymarketElon Musk # tweets April 28 - May 5, 2026?91%$1.6M PolymarketWhat will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?>99%$1.4M PolymarketLakers vs. Thunder68%$1.3M PolymarketUS x Iran permanent peace deal by...?63%$1.2M PolymarketWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?70%$1.2M PolymarketLoL: Dplus KIA vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoffs>99%$1.1M Polymarket2026 FIFA World Cup Winner 17%$6.6M PolymarketWhen will Bitcoin hit $150k?10%$5.8M PolymarketIran closes its airspace by...?44%$2.9M PolymarketDemocratic Presidential Nominee 202826%$2.2M PolymarketBitcoin above ___ on May 5?>99%$2.0M PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 202849%$1.9M Polymarket2026 NBA Champion60%$1.8M PolymarketNext French Presidential Election24%$1.8M PolymarketEurovision Winner 202635%$1.7M PolymarketElon Musk # tweets April 28 - May 5, 2026?91%$1.6M PolymarketWhat will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?>99%$1.4M PolymarketLakers vs. Thunder68%$1.3M PolymarketUS x Iran permanent peace deal by...?63%$1.2M PolymarketWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?70%$1.2M PolymarketLoL: Dplus KIA vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoffs>99%$1.1M

Kalshi·Politics

What will be the 51st state in Trump's term?

Current top probability

6%

Puerto Rico

All outcomes

Puerto Rico
6%
Greenland
6%
Canada
2%
Venezuela
2%
District of Columbia
2%
Colombia
2%
Guam
<1%

Probability over time

Puerto Rico probability over 4 snapshots+0.0pp

About this market

During Trump's term