Saturday, June 20, 2026Jun 20, 2026Independent prediction market intelligence/Edition № 81

Polymarket2026 FIFA World Cup Winner 18%$32.2M PolymarketCavaliers vs. Knicks>99%$16.6M PolymarketAFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC>99%$14.2M PolymarketWhen will Bitcoin hit $150k?10%$5.8M PolymarketTrump kiss by May 31?>99%$5.7M Kalshi2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?19%$99K KalshiWho will be Trump's next Attorney General?54%$76K KalshiWhat will be the 51st state in Trump's term?5%$29K KalshiWill OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?89%$11K KalshiWhat will the price of GTA VI be on PS5?96%$9K Polymarket2026 FIFA World Cup Winner 18%$32.2M PolymarketCavaliers vs. Knicks>99%$16.6M PolymarketAFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC>99%$14.2M PolymarketWhen will Bitcoin hit $150k?10%$5.8M PolymarketTrump kiss by May 31?>99%$5.7M Kalshi2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?19%$99K KalshiWho will be Trump's next Attorney General?54%$76K KalshiWhat will be the 51st state in Trump's term?5%$29K KalshiWill OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?89%$11K KalshiWhat will the price of GTA VI be on PS5?96%$9K

Kalshi·Politics

Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next?

Current top probability

40%

Tulsi Gabbard

All outcomes

Tulsi Gabbard
40%
Howard Lutnick
27%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
7%
Lee Zeldin
5%
Susie Wiles
5%
Marco Rubio
4%
Scott Bessent
4%
Jamieson Greer
4%
Pete Hegseth
3%
Scott Turner
3%
Sean Duffy
3%
John Ratcliffe
3%
Doug Burgum
2%
Brooke Rollins
2%
Linda McMahon
2%
Markwayne Mullin
<1%
Kelly Loeffler
<1%
Chris Wright
<1%
Doug Collins
<1%
Michael Kratsios
<1%
Russell Vought
<1%
Mike Waltz
<1%

About this market

During Trump's term