May 5, 2026Edition № 35
Polymarket2026 FIFA World Cup Winner 17%$6.6MPolymarketWhen will Bitcoin hit $150k?10%$5.8MPolymarketIran closes its airspace by...?44%$2.9MPolymarketDemocratic Presidential Nominee 202826%$2.2MPolymarketBitcoin above ___ on May 5?>99%$2.0MPolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 202849%$1.9MPolymarket2026 NBA Champion60%$1.8MPolymarketNext French Presidential Election24%$1.8MPolymarketEurovision Winner 202635%$1.7MPolymarketElon Musk # tweets April 28 - May 5, 2026?91%$1.6MPolymarketWhat will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?>99%$1.4MPolymarketLakers vs. Thunder68%$1.3MPolymarketUS x Iran permanent peace deal by...?63%$1.2MPolymarketWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?70%$1.2MPolymarketLoL: Dplus KIA vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoffs>99%$1.1MPolymarket2026 FIFA World Cup Winner 17%$6.6MPolymarketWhen will Bitcoin hit $150k?10%$5.8MPolymarketIran closes its airspace by...?44%$2.9MPolymarketDemocratic Presidential Nominee 202826%$2.2MPolymarketBitcoin above ___ on May 5?>99%$2.0MPolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 202849%$1.9MPolymarket2026 NBA Champion60%$1.8MPolymarketNext French Presidential Election24%$1.8MPolymarketEurovision Winner 202635%$1.7MPolymarketElon Musk # tweets April 28 - May 5, 2026?91%$1.6MPolymarketWhat will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?>99%$1.4MPolymarketLakers vs. Thunder68%$1.3MPolymarketUS x Iran permanent peace deal by...?63%$1.2MPolymarketWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?70%$1.2MPolymarketLoL: Dplus KIA vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoffs>99%$1.1M
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Kalshi·Elections

Will Trump be allowed to run for a 3rd term?

Current top probability

88%

Before Jan 1, 2029

Both sides

  • Before Jan 1, 2029
    88%
  • Before Jan 1, 2029
    12%

Probability over time

0%25%50%75%100%8:55 AM12:11 PM
Before Jan 1, 2029 probability over 4 snapshots+0.0pp

About this market

Before 2029