Saturday, June 20, 2026Jun 20, 2026Independent prediction market intelligence/Edition № 81

Polymarket2026 FIFA World Cup Winner 18%$32.2M PolymarketCavaliers vs. Knicks>99%$16.6M PolymarketAFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC>99%$14.2M PolymarketWhen will Bitcoin hit $150k?10%$5.8M PolymarketTrump kiss by May 31?>99%$5.7M Kalshi2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?19%$99K KalshiWho will be Trump's next Attorney General?54%$76K KalshiWhat will be the 51st state in Trump's term?5%$29K KalshiWill OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?89%$11K KalshiWhat will the price of GTA VI be on PS5?96%$9K Polymarket2026 FIFA World Cup Winner 18%$32.2M PolymarketCavaliers vs. Knicks>99%$16.6M PolymarketAFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC>99%$14.2M PolymarketWhen will Bitcoin hit $150k?10%$5.8M PolymarketTrump kiss by May 31?>99%$5.7M Kalshi2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?19%$99K KalshiWho will be Trump's next Attorney General?54%$76K KalshiWhat will be the 51st state in Trump's term?5%$29K KalshiWill OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?89%$11K KalshiWhat will the price of GTA VI be on PS5?96%$9K

Kalshi·Companies

When will any company achieve AGI?

Current top probability

70%

Before Jan 1, 2031

All outcomes

Before Jan 1, 2031
70%
Before Jan 1, 2030
68%
Before Oct 1, 2028
66%
Before Apr 1, 2028
61%
Before Jul 1, 2028
59%
Before Jan 1, 2029
59%
Before Jan 1, 2028
48%
Before Oct 1, 2027
40%
Before Jul 1, 2027
31%
Before Apr 1, 2027
24%
Before Jan 1, 2027
19%
Before Oct 1, 2026
14%
Before Jul 1, 2026
3%

About this market

Corporate announcement